Intelligent electric drive, the scale will exceed 100 billion, and automotive PCB will usher in an accelerated growth period. Automotive is an important application area for PCBs, accounting for 16% of the total PCB industry demand. From 2010 to 2020, the output value of automotive PCB increased from USD 2.8 billion to USD 7.3 billion, with a CAGR of 10.1%. The demand for PCB in the electronic control system of new energy vehicles has greatly increased, the consumption of bicycles is 5-8 times that of traditional vehicles, and the value of bicycles has increased by more than 2,000 yuan. Intelligence increases the demand for high-value-added PCBs such as high-frequency and HDI boards in automobiles, and increases the value of bicycles. We predict that the global automotive PCB market size will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2023, and the CAGR will reach 25.7% from 2020 to 2025, and the industry will usher in an accelerated growth period.
Customer priority will become the new normal in the industry, and ecological transformation will breed leaders. We divide the driving forces of automotive PCB companies into two categories. One is technology-driven that binds major customers and is closely related to the sales of major customers’ products; the other is cost-driven that downstream customers are scattered, relying on cost control to achieve endogenous production. increase. In the past, PCB applications were scattered in the body, and there was no single product value field similar to electronic control. Large customers did not mean large orders and significant economies of scale. Under the background of software-defined automobiles, the automobile hardware will tend to be consistent, and the value of the PCB for the superimposed electronic control system BMS will be large. In the future, it will show the characteristics of large customers and large orders. cost driven. In-vehicle entertainment, new energy vehicles, and millimeter-wave radar will increase the proportion of HDI, thick copper plates, FPC, and high-frequency boards, and the high-end product structure of the automotive PCB industry will accelerate. Therefore, we believe that the key customer strategy and technology-driven growth model will change the past characteristics of the scattered PCB industry and weak company growth, giving birth to industry leaders, while mainland Chinese companies will be closer to customers, stable supply capacity and service advantages. Take the lead.
Profit suppression factors are gradually eliminated, and profitability is expected to be restored. Since Q2 of 2020, affected by the sharp rise in raw material prices and the rapid appreciation of the RMB, the profitability of PCB manufacturers has declined all the way to Q3 of 2021. At present, the prices of copper, resin, and fiberglass cloth have fallen from high levels, and the pace of price increases of CCL manufacturers has slowed down. With the gradual elimination of profit suppressing factors, the profitability of PCB companies will usher in an inflection point.
The electrification and intelligence of automobiles will increase the value of the PCB of a bicycle, which will drive the rapid growth of the industry scale. The new usage of electrification is mainly used in the field of electronic control. In the past, the application of automotive PCBs was scattered and the order amount was small. In the future, large customers will be large orders, that is, the significant scale effect of single product volume. In the changing situation, my country's automotive PCB manufacturers have obvious competitive advantages. At present, some companies have entered the supply chain of global leading manufacturers.
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